%0 Journal Article
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2015/06.22.16.32
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2015/06.22.16.32.47
%@doi 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.003
%@issn 2214-5818
%T Exploratory analyses for the assessment of climate change impacts on the energy production in an Amazon run-of-river hydropower plant
%D 2015
%9 journal article
%A Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna,
%A Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés,
%A Tomasella, Javier,
%A Siqueira Júnior, José Lázaro,
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@electronicmailaddress gsmohor@yahoo.com.br
%@electronicmailaddress daniel.andres@inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress javier@cptec.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress jose.lazaro@inpe.br
%B Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
%V 4
%P 41-59
%K Adaptation,Amazon river basin, Climate change, Hydrologic modeling, Hydropower, MHD-INPE.
%X Study region: The Tapajós Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected byhuman activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as otherswithin the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, amongthem the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015.Study focus: Hydrological impacts due to climate change affect human activi-ties, such as hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for betterplanning of water management. In this study, we assess climate change impactsby applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model using several climate modelsprojections as inputs. The impact assessment consisted of statistical shifts ofprecipitation and discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plantwas assessed through the development of annual power duration curves for eachprojection, also considering its design and structural limitations.New hydrological insights for the region: The high inter-model variability inthe climate projections drives a high variability in the projected hydrologicalimpacts. Results indicate an increase of basins sensitivity to climate change andvulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the identification of asingular optimal solution for impacts assessment. However, exploratory analysisof the plant design robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in theenergy production even under projections of increased discharge, due to plantcapacity limitations. This is valuable information for stakeholders to decide aboutenergy production strategies.
%@language en